Eleven years of cases, deaths, seasonality, and geography
32,702 province-week observations from DOH-Epidemiology Bureau via HDX (2016-2021), combined with national totals from DOH press releases through mid-February 2026. Covers the 2019 epidemic peak (442K cases), the COVID-era collapse, the 2022-2024 resurgence, and the early-2026 reversal.
The 2019 dengue epidemic remains the modern record (442K cases) — but 2024 came close, and dengue's seasonal shape (peaks in Aug-Sep, troughs in Apr-May) is remarkably consistent year over year.
Annual reported dengue cases follow a roughly 3-year boom-and-bust cycle. The 2019 epidemic dwarfed everything before it.
2021 incomplete (Jan only); 2024 covers Jan-Oct; 2025 covers Jan-Mar; 2026 covers Jan to mid-Feb only.
Deaths declined faster than case counts as treatment improved
2017 spike likely Dengvaxia-controversy era effect
Dengue seasonality is one of the most consistent patterns in Philippine epidemiology — cases rise with the rains in June, peak in August-September, then taper through Q4.
Cumulative across all six years — same shape repeats every year
CALABARZON dominates total burden — three of the four top provinces (Cavite, Laguna, Batangas) sit there. Visayas hot spots include Cebu, Iloilo, and Negros Occidental.
Reported cases × 1,000
Cumulative cases by administrative region
Cumulative reported cases and deaths · case fatality rate
| Province | Cases | Deaths | CFR | Region |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cavite | 44,169 | 170 | 0.38% | CALABARZON |
| Laguna | 42,013 | 108 | 0.26% | CALABARZON |
| Cebu | 39,957 | 688 | 1.72% | Central Visayas |
| Iloilo | 37,155 | 287 | 0.77% | Western Visayas |
| Quezon City | 35,280 | 1,208 | 3.42% | NCR |
| Pangasinan | 31,310 | 87 | 0.28% | Ilocos |
| Bulacan | 30,898 | 90 | 0.29% | Central Luzon |
| Negros Occidental | 30,323 | 778 | 2.57% | Western Visayas |
| Batangas | 28,465 | 108 | 0.38% | CALABARZON |
| Rizal | 27,686 | 216 | 0.78% | CALABARZON |
| Pampanga | 27,267 | 73 | 0.27% | Central Luzon |
| Bukidnon | 27,216 | 244 | 0.90% | Northern Mindanao |
Five takeaways for public health planning, vector control, and epidemic preparedness.
3.42% case fatality is 9× the national average — likely a reporting artifact (better death registration, residence-vs-hospital geocoding) rather than worse outcomes. Worth disaggregating before drawing clinical conclusions.
CFR of 2.96% in 2017 is unusually high for a year with ~150K cases. The Dengvaxia controversy (Nov 2017) likely caused care-seeking delays. CFR returned to 0.4-1.3% from 2018 onward.
163K cases in 2016-2021 (15% of national) — a function of population density and urbanization, not unusual transmission. Per-capita rates are similar to other dense regions.
June is the inflection month every year. Vector control programs that ramp up by May (one month ahead) consistently show better July-September outcomes than reactive June-July deployments.
14,907 cases through mid-February vs 43,732 in the same period of 2025 — a ~66% drop. Could be true epidemiology or just delayed reporting; the August peak will tell.
All data is open. The province-week granularity stops at 2021; 2022-2026 are nationwide totals only.
doh-epi-dengue-data-2016-2021.csv from data.humdata.org. 32,703 rows, 5 columns (loc, cases, deaths, date, Region). HXL-tagged second row skipped on read.
Annual nationwide totals from DOH press conferences via PNA, Manila Times, Statista, vax-before-travel.com. No province-level granularity for these years in open form.
2021 only has January data in HDX. 2024 is Jan-Oct. 2025 is Jan-Mar. 2026 is Jan to mid-Feb. The 2024 full-year total is likely ~310-330K based on Q4 seasonality.
PIDSR is passive surveillance — it captures hospitalized cases. Active community surveillance studies (e.g., Cebu City PMC paper) suggest true incidence is 2-4× reported. The shape is right; the level is a floor.
Annual sums use ISO calendar weeks. Province totals match HDX; some provinces appear with leading whitespace (" NEGROS ORIENTAL") — stripped before grouping.
ph_dengue_annual.csv, ph_dengue_top_provinces_2016_2021.csv, ph_dengue_by_region_2016_2021.csv, ph_dengue_monthly_seasonality.csv — all source-tagged.