16 years of inbound visitors — recovery, reshuffle, and what's next
From 3.5M arrivals in 2010 to a pandemic-flattened 164K in 2021 to a record 6.48M in 2025 — and now, in early 2026, a structural shift where the United States has overtaken South Korea as the Philippines' #1 source market. Built from World Bank Indicators API plus DOT-published year-end and Q1 figures.
After a near-total COVID collapse, Philippine tourism has fully recovered in volume — but the source-market mix has fundamentally changed: the United States is now the #1 origin country, not South Korea.
From steady growth through 2019, the COVID cliff, and a post-pandemic recovery that has now matched and exceeded pre-pandemic peaks.
All international visitors. Bars colored by era — pre-COVID growth, COVID collapse, recovery.
Foreign tourists vs returning overseas Filipinos
Foreign arrivals by month — Jan to Mar 2026 (April 2026 not yet published)
South Korea has been the #1 source market for years. The US a steady second. Japan recovered fastest in 2024, growing +22.8% YoY.
Share of foreign visitor arrivals (5.44M total)
Top 6 source countries, in millions
2023 vs 2024 (where 2023 reported), with growth rate and share of foreign arrivals
| Country | 2024 Arrivals | Share | 2023 Arrivals | YoY Growth |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Korea | 1,574,152 | 26.46% | 1,455,977 | +8.12% |
| United States | 1,076,663 | 18.10% | 1,041,305 | +3.40% |
| Japan | 444,528 | 7.47% | 361,862 | +22.84% |
| China | 312,222 | 5.25% | — | — |
| Australia | 272,215 | 4.58% | — | — |
| Canada | 223,944 | 3.76% | — | — |
Q1 2026 marks the first time the United States has surpassed South Korea as the Philippines' top source market. Korean and Chinese arrivals are declining; US, Japan, and other markets are taking up the slack.
YoY change vs Q1 2025
2024 full year (left bars) → Q1 2026 (right bars)
393,137 US arrivals in Q1 2026 vs 385,589 from Korea. The lead is thin (~7,500), but the trajectories diverge sharply: US +5.9% YoY, Korea -10.2%.
After Korea drove the post-COVID recovery (peak 1.57M in 2024), arrivals are softening as travel preferences diversify across SEA and the won weakens.
46,553 Chinese arrivals in Q1 2026, -19.8% YoY, dropped China to 8th place. Visa friction, geopolitical tension, and Beijing's domestic-tourism push all weigh.
Per-visitor spend recovered faster than headcount — 2024 receipts beat 2023 by 9% even though arrival count grew slightly less.
Inbound tourism expenditure
Receipts ÷ total arrivals
Five takeaways for tourism strategy and market sizing in the Visayas, Luzon, and Mindanao.
2025's 6.48M tops every year except 2019. But the source-country mix is the most diversified it's been in a decade — over-reliance on Korea/China is easing.
US arrivals grew through every year of the recovery, and didn't dip in Q1 2026 like Korea did. Diaspora visits keep the US baseline high regardless of currency cycles.
+22.8% YoY in 2024 — the fastest-growing major source. Yen weakness against PHP makes the Philippines a relative-bargain destination for Japanese travelers.
2024 receipts +9.0% on +9.2% arrivals — but per-visitor spend has held up despite the K-tourist heavy mix that historically had lower per-day spend.
Q1 2026 is +2.6% YoY. Holding that pace gets ~6.65M for 2026 — just below target, suggesting peak-season programs in Q4 will be the swing factor.
Reproducible from public APIs and named press releases. No private data.
Pulled ST.INT.ARVL indicator from api.worldbank.org/v2/country/PHL/indicator/ST.INT.ARVL. WB stops updating in 2020 for the Philippines.
2021-2025 totals and country mixes from DOT's year-end statements as quoted in IAG/asgam (2026-01-25), Manila Times, BusinessMirror, GMA News. Q1 2026 from IAG (2026-04-14).
DOT typically releases monthly with a 2-4 week lag. April 2026 is not yet published as of May 2026; the page will be refreshed when it drops.
DOT's tourism.gov.ph/tourism/demand-statistics/ portal is JS-rendered with no resolvable file URLs, and data.gov.ph's SPA wrapper blocks direct programmatic fetches. PRs welcome if/when an open API ships.
Computed as receipts ÷ total arrivals. 2024: ₱760.5B / 5.95M ≈ ₱127,800; 2023: ₱482.5B / 5.45M ≈ ₱88,500. Caveat: receipts include some same-year-multi-trip aggregation.
ph_tourism_annual.csv, ph_tourism_top_markets_2024.csv, ph_tourism_q1_2026.csv, ph_tourism_monthly_2026.csv, ph_tourism_receipts.csv — each row tagged with its source.