Philippine Stock Market (PSE) Analysis

📉 Record Close

The PSEi's highest close came on 29 January 2018, with an intraday peak of 9,078.37 the same day. It has not been near that level since. The 2017 year-end close of 8,558.42 held the record for barely a month.

🔴 COVID Crash

19 March 2020 is the sharpest single-day fall in PSE history, measured across every session since 1987. The index closed at 4,623.42 that day, down 33.65% from 27 February. An intraday print near 4,039 was widely reported but is not in the daily series used here.

📊 ASEAN Laggard

From the 2014 year-end close to the 2025 close the PSEi lost 16.28% (2014-2024 alone: -9.71%). It ranks last in ASEAN on price return, though Thailand and Malaysia were also negative over the decade — the gap to those two is a few points, not a rout.

🏆 Mining & Oil Led

The Mining & Oil index climbed from 7,829.66 to 15,059.80 across 2025, on the back of the year's precious and base metals rally. The rise was gradual rather than a step change, which rules out an index rebase. It is a small index, so it moves further than the headline market.

⚠️ Holding Firms Lagged

Holding Firms fell hardest in 2025, from 4,787.66 the year before. The conglomerates carry heavy weight in the PSEi, which is a large part of why the headline index closed the year down 7.29% while Services and Mining rose.

🏦 The Spread Is the Story

In 2025 the best sector (Mining & Oil, +92.34%) and the worst (Holding Firms, -15.12%) were 107 percentage points apart. A single headline index number hides that completely, which is the argument for watching the sector series rather than the PSEi alone.

💰 One Company, One Seventh

International Container Terminal Services alone is about 14.7% of domestic market capitalisation — larger than the next two companies combined. Concentration on the PSE is a single-name story before it is a conglomerate one.

🏆 ICTSI Leads, Not SM

International Container Terminal Services is the largest domestic company on the exchange at about P1.89 trillion, roughly 14.7% of domestic market capitalisation and larger than the next two combined. SM Investments is second at P674 billion.

📊 Conglomerate Heavy

Seven of the top 10 companies are conglomerates or their subsidiaries (Sy, Ayala, Gokongwei groups). This reflects the Philippine economy's conglomerate-driven structure where a handful of family groups control diverse business empires across banking, property, telco, energy, and consumer goods.

📈 No Lockdown Volume Spike

2020 averaged P5.24 billion a day across the 80 largest names — barely above 2019. The retail-broker boom is real in account openings, but it does not show up as a turnover surge at this end of the market.

📱 2021 Was the Busy Year

The PSE's own infographics put average daily value traded at P9.00 billion in 2021, the highest of the five years they cover, falling to P6.09 billion by 2023 before recovering. Retail account-opening figures are not published in a form this project can verify, so no claim is made about them.

📊 The Market-Wide Figure

The PSE's own annual infographics put average daily value traded at P9.00B in 2021, P7.30B in 2022, P6.09B in 2023, P6.10B in 2024 and P7.33B in 2025. The 80 names charted here account for roughly 65-80% of that, so read the chart for shape and these figures for level.

⚠️ Mining Is the Volatile One

Mining & Oil runs at 30.1% annualised volatility, the highest of the six and nearly double Industrial's 15.8%. That cuts both ways: it was the worst sector of 2024 at -21.71% and the best of 2025 at +92.34%. A small index moves further in both directions.

✅ Industrial Is the Steadiest

Industrial is the least volatile of the six sector indices at 15.8% annualised, against 30.1% for Mining & Oil. Financials sits mid-pack at 20.7%. These are volatilities computed from the exchange's own daily sector closes; risk-adjusted return would need an earnings series this page does not carry.

🔴 Five Straight Years of Selling

Net foreign selling every year from 2021 to 2025, totalling about P199 billion, per the PSE's own annual infographics: 2021 -P2.75B, 2022 -P68.05B, 2023 -P53.65B, 2024 -P23.19B, 2025 -P51.20B.

💵 Five-Year Total

Net foreign selling totalled about P198.8 billion across 2021 to 2025, per the PSE's own annual infographics. Exchange-rate figures are not part of this dataset and no claim is made about them here.

📊 Months of Monthly Detail

The monthly series covers 56 months of net foreign flows parsed from PSE weekly reports. Local versus foreign participation shares are not broken out in the source and are not claimed.

▲ ABG +598%

The largest 2024 gain among the 80 biggest listed companies, from 3.01 to 21.00. Moves of this size at the top of the board are usually corporate events rather than trading — treat the driver as a question to research, not a fact this dataset supplies.

▼ BLOOM -53%

The largest 2024 decline in the same universe, from 9.84 to 4.58.

🔴 Worst ASEAN Performer

From the 2014 year-end close to the 2025 close the PSEi returned -16.29%, the weakest of the five indices compared. Thailand is within half a point at -15.89%, so the ranking holds but the margin is narrow.

📊 Why the Philippines Lagged

Multiple structural headwinds explain the underperformance: higher domestic inflation, persistent peso depreciation, sustained foreign portfolio outflows, the slowest COVID vaccine rollout in ASEAN, and relatively lower corporate earnings growth compared to Indonesia and Vietnam.

💵 The Index Yields 3.72%

The PSE's Quarterly Dividend Report puts the PSEi's trailing yield at 3.72% for 4Q2024-3Q2025, and the whole market at 4.04% among companies that declared. Industrial leads the sectors at 4.66%, Holding Firms trails at 3.15%. Individual names run far higher — SCC at 19.01%.

📊 The Whole Market

The PSE's Quarterly Dividend Report puts the whole market at 4.04% among companies that declared a dividend, and 3.56% across the total market including those that did not.

📈 A Wide Valuation Spread

Trailing P/E across the PSEi 30 runs from PLUS at 3.20x to EMI at 67.08x. A market-level P/E is deliberately not shown: the PSE compiles one, but it sits on page 27 of the paid Monthly Report, and the free preview omits it.

💲 Lowest in the Index

DigiPlus trades at the lowest trailing P/E of the PSEi constituents at 3.20x. Sector-level P/E is not shown: the PSE compiles one but publishes it only in the paid Monthly Report.

📊 Highest in the Index

Emperador carries the highest trailing P/E in the index at 67.08x. No index-average P/E is claimed here, for the same reason.

🎄 December Is the Strong Month

Across 39 Decembers the PSEi averaged +3.21%, and finished higher in 69% of them — the most reliable month in the series. January is second at +2.03% (positive 64% of the time).

⚠️ August Is the Weak One

August is the worst month in the record, averaging -2.35% and closing higher in only 36% of years. September is the other negative month at -1.65%.

🔴 August Rises Least Often

August closed higher in only 36% of the 39 years measured, the lowest share of any month. December is the mirror image at 69%.

📈 2021 Raised the Most

2021 raised the most capital of the five years the PSE publishes in machine-readable form, at P156.03 billion. Counts of new listings before 2021 are not available from a free source and are not claimed.

🔴 2024 Was the Weakest

2024 was the weakest of those five years at P75.78 billion raised, down 46% on 2023, before recovering to P138.75 billion in 2025.

⚠️ Breadth Swings, It Does Not Narrow

2024 breadth oscillated rather than trending. Sep was the broadest month with 60 of 80 names higher (76.9%), and Nov the narrowest with 17 (22.1%). There is no steady deterioration in the record.

📊 Index vs Average Stock

While the PSEi composite gained 3.2% in the second half of 2024, the average listed stock actually declined 4.8% over the same period. This widening divergence between the cap-weighted index and the equal-weighted average stock signals weak market internals and warrants caution for investors with broad market exposure beyond the top 30 names.

📈 Market Underperformance

• PSEi returned -9.71% over 2014-2024, and -16.28% out to the 2025 close
• Last among major ASEAN indices on price return, though Thailand and Malaysia were also negative
• COVID crash hit the Philippines harder with the slowest recovery
• Still trading about 33% below the record close of 9,058.62 set on 29 January 2018

🔴 Foreign Selling Pressure

• Net foreign selling every year 2021-2025, about P198.8 billion in total
• 2022 was the heaviest year at -P68.05 billion; 2024 the lightest at -P23.19 billion
• 56 months of monthly detail parsed from PSE weekly reports, 2022 onward
• Local versus foreign participation shares are not broken out in the source and are not claimed here

🏆 Sector Leadership

• Mining & Oil led 2025 at +92.34%, having been the worst of 2024 at -21.71%
• Services rose 14.26% in 2025; Holding Firms fell 15.12%
• The gap between best and worst sector in 2025 was 107 percentage points
• Mining & Oil is also the most volatile at 30.1% annualised, Industrial the least at 15.8%

💰 Valuation Opportunity

• Trailing P/E across the PSEi 30 runs from 3.20x to 67.08x
• No index-average P/E is claimed: the PSE compiles one but publishes it only in the paid Monthly Report
• The PSEi's trailing dividend yield is 3.72%, and the whole market 4.04% among companies that declared
• ICTSI alone is about 14.7% of domestic market capitalisation